🎾 TENNIS IN-PLAY TRADING — EXECUTION MANUAL

Complete Guide: Terminal Intelligence → Real Platform Execution

Portfolio: 100 units | Goal: Profit on every event via combined position management Philosophy: Every match is ONE trade with multiple legs. We enter, scale, hedge, and exit as a combined position — never naked, never unmanaged.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Core Philosophy — The Combined Event Approach
2. Portfolio Structure — 100 Unit Allocation
3. Pre-Match: Reading the Edge Panel
4. Entry Rules — When & How Much
5. In-Play State Machine — Signal → Action → Size
6. Hedge Execution — Lock Profit, Limit Loss
7. Exit Rules — Taking Profit / Cutting Loss
8. Position Sizing Table — Every State
9. Platform Execution Checklist
10. Risk Rules — Non-Negotiable
11. Worked Examples
12. Quick Reference Card

1. CORE PHILOSOPHY

The Combined Event Approach

Every match is a single trade with multiple legs. You don't just "back P1 and hope." You actively manage one combined position across the full event lifecycle:

PRE-MATCH → ENTRY → SCALE UP/DOWN → HEDGE → RE-ENTER → HEDGE → EXIT

The terminal gives you three intelligence layers:

Guaranteed Profit Rule

To come out profitable on EVERY event, follow this ironclad principle:

Enter only with edge → Scale into confirmed edge → Hedge to lock green → Never let green turn red.

If you entered at value odds and the position moves in your favor, the hedge math GUARANTEES profit on both outcomes. The terminal calculates this for you.

2. PORTFOLIO STRUCTURE — 100 Units

Bankroll Tiers

Position Sizing Rules (¼ Kelly)

The terminal calculates Full Kelly % from edge. You use ¼ Kelly for safety:

CRITICAL: Never exceed 6 units initial entry. Never have more than 15 units exposed across all active events simultaneously.

3. PRE-MATCH — Reading the Edge Panel

Step 1: Open the Terminal Edge Panel

Click any match → the right panel shows:

1. MODEL PROBABILITY — Our Elo+surface model's true probability
2. BOOKMAKER ODDS & EDGE — Implied probability vs model → edge %
3. VALUE BET SIGNALS — Color-coded: 🔥 STRONG (>5%) / ⚡ MODERATE (>2%) / ✗ Negative
4. KELLY STAKING — Exact unit recommendation

Step 2: Identify Value

Read these numbers from the Edge Panel:

MODEL P:       68.2%         ← terminal's true probability
BOOK ODDS:     @1.85         ← what the bookmaker offers
IMPLIED P:     54.1%         ← what the odds imply (1/1.85)
EDGE:          +14.1%        ← model minus implied (68.2 - 54.1)
FAIR ODDS:     @1.47         ← what odds SHOULD be (1/0.682)
OVERROUND:     4.2%          ← bookmaker's juice
¼ KELLY:       3.8u          ← recommended stake

Step 3: Decision Matrix

Step 4: Check Context

Before entering, verify in MATCH CONTEXT section:

• Surface: Clay dampens favorites (more upsets). Grass amplifies (serve dominant).
• Best of: BO5 favors the better player significantly more than BO3.
• Round: Later rounds = tighter matches = smaller edges.
• H2H/Form: Terminal doesn't show this — check externally if edge is <3%.

4. ENTRY RULES — When & How Much

Pre-Match Entry

In-Play Entry (from Point Tracker signals)

Entry Timing — When to Pull the Trigger

5. IN-PLAY STATE MACHINE — Signal → Action → Size

This is the core execution engine. At every state change (every point), the terminal fires signals. Here's exactly what to do:

MATCH-Level States

SET-Level States

GAME-Level States (Micro-Trading)

HEDGE-Level States (Protection)

6. HEDGE EXECUTION — Lock Profit, Limit Loss

The Core Formula

When you have a position and want to guarantee profit on both outcomes:

HEDGE STAKE = (Original Stake × Original Odds) / Hedge Odds

Example:
- Entered: 4u on Sinner @ 2.50 (to win 10u total return)
- Now: Sinner winning, Alcaraz odds drifted to @ 4.00
- Hedge: 10u / 4.00 = 2.5u on Alcaraz

P&L if Sinner wins:  +10.0 - 4.0 - 2.5 = +3.5u ✅
P&L if Alcaraz wins: -4.0 + 10.0 - 4.0 = +3.5u ✅ (hedge pays 2.5 × 4.0 = 10.0, minus original 4u and hedge 2.5u)

GUARANTEED +3.5u either way!

Hedge Decision Tree

Your position is GREEN (odds moved in your favor)?
├── YES → Edge still positive?
│   ├── YES → HOLD. Don't hedge yet. Let it run.
│   └── NO → HEDGE NOW. Lock the green.
│       ├── >80% probability → Full hedge (lock profit both sides)
│       ├── 65–80% → Partial hedge (50–70% of position)
│       └── 55–65% → Small hedge (30% of position)
│
└── NO (position is RED — odds moved against you)
    ├── Terminal shows EXIT signal?
    │   ├── YES → CUT THE LOSS. Exit at market.
    │   └── NO → How red?
    │       ├── <2u loss → HOLD if edge still positive
    │       ├── 2–4u loss → REDUCE 50%
    │       └── >4u loss → EXIT (stop loss hit)

When to Execute Each Hedge Type

7. EXIT RULES — Taking Profit / Cutting Loss

Profit Exit (Green Book)

Loss Exit (Red Book)

Stop-Loss Rules (NON-NEGOTIABLE)

8. POSITION SIZING TABLE — Every State

Complete State × Size Reference

Portfolio: 100 units. Tier A (60u), Tier B hedge (30u), Tier C emergency (10u).

Game-Level Scalp Sizing

9. PLATFORM EXECUTION CHECKLIST

Before the Match

• [ ] Open terminal, click the match
• [ ] Read Edge Panel: MODEL P, BOOK ODDS, EDGE %, KELLY
• [ ] Check the 💎 RECOMMENDED line at the bottom of the panel
• [ ] Open your betting platform, navigate to the match
• [ ] If edge ≥ 2%: Place pre-match bet per Kelly sizing
• [ ] Record: Player, Odds, Stake, Edge% in your log

During the Match (Every Point)

• [ ] Click into PointTracker (📡 live tab) for live Markov signals
• [ ] Watch for colored signal cards:
• 🟢 Green border = ENTRY → Add to position
• 🟡 Yellow border = HOLD → Do nothing
• 🔴 Red border = HEDGE/EXIT → Reduce or hedge
• 🛡 Shield = HEDGE with specific % → Place counter-bet
• [ ] Execute each signal on your platform within 5 seconds
• [ ] After each execution, note: Side, Odds, Stake

Hedge Execution Steps

1. Signal fires: "HEDGE 60% — server collapse"
2. Calculate: 60% × your current position = hedge amount
3. On platform: Back the OTHER player at current live odds
4. Verify P&L: If original wins → (original payout) − (hedge stake) = profit?
5. Verify P&L: If hedge wins → (hedge payout) − (original stake) = profit?
6. If both green → ✅ Locked. If one red → it's a partial hedge (acceptable).

Post-Match

• [ ] Record final P&L
• [ ] Log all entry/exit/hedge timestamps and odds
• [ ] Check if stop-losses were respected
• [ ] Update running bankroll

10. RISK RULES — NON-NEGOTIABLE

The 10 Commandments

1. Never exceed 6u initial entry on any single event
2. Never exceed 15u total exposure across all concurrent events
3. Always use ¼ Kelly, never full Kelly
4. Never enter without positive edge (model P > implied P)
5. Always have hedge reserve (30u minimum in Tier B)
6. Hedge when green, don't wait for more green
7. Cut when −4u on any single event, no exceptions
8. Stop when −8u for the session
9. Game-level scalps expire when the game ends — don't carry them
10. Log every bet — odds, stake, edge, signal that triggered it

Risk Per Tier

Correlation Rule

Never have >3 events running simultaneously. Tennis matches overlap and if rain/retirement hits, you need margin.

11. WORKED EXAMPLES

Example A: Clean Value Entry → Hedge → Guaranteed Profit

MATCH: Sinner vs Rune — ATP Clay, BO3

PRE-MATCH (Terminal Edge Panel):
  Model P:     72% Sinner
  Book Odds:   Sinner @ 1.75 (implied 57.1%)
  Edge:        +14.9% → 🔥 STRONG
  ¼ Kelly:     4.2u
  
ACTION: Enter 4u on Sinner @ 1.75 (from Tier A)
  Potential payout: 4 × 1.75 = 7.0u return

SET 1 — Sinner breaks, leads 4-2:
  Signal: BREAK ADVANTAGE · MODERATE
  Markov P: 81% Sinner
  Rune odds drifted: @ 5.50
  ACTION: Hold. Edge still strong.

SET 1 — Sinner wins 6-3:
  Signal: SET LEAD · Sinner at 88%
  Rune odds: @ 8.00
  ACTION: Begin hedge consideration.
  
  HEDGE CALC:
    Hedge stake = (4 × 1.75) / 8.00 = 0.875u → round to 1u on Rune @ 8.00
    If Sinner wins: 7.0 - 4.0 - 1.0 = +2.0u ✅
    If Rune wins:   8.0 - 4.0 - 1.0 = +3.0u ✅
    
  ACTION: Place 1u on Rune @ 8.00 (from Tier B)
  
RESULT: Guaranteed +2.0u to +3.0u regardless of outcome! 🎯

ACTUAL: Sinner wins 6-3, 6-4 → Collect +2.0u net

Example B: Wrong Entry → Damage Control → Small Loss

MATCH: Pegula vs Sabalenka — WTA Hard, BO3

PRE-MATCH:
  Model P:     55% Pegula
  Book Odds:   Pegula @ 2.10 (implied 47.6%)
  Edge:        +7.4% → 🔥 STRONG
  ¼ Kelly:     1.9u
  
ACTION: Enter 2u on Pegula @ 2.10 (Tier A)

SET 1 — Sabalenka breaks, leads 3-1:
  Signal: MOMENTUM REVERSAL EXIT · Pegula trailing in total points 12-18
  Markov P: 38% Pegula (was 55%)
  ACTION: Cut 50% → Exit 1u at current Pegula odds @ 2.80
  Loss on exited unit: Entered @ 2.10, but EXIT means accepting current market.
  Remaining: 1u still on Pegula.

SET 1 — Sabalenka wins 6-2:
  Signal: 🛡 Probability reversed · was P1 +7%, now 28%-72%
  Hedge signal: HEDGE 80%
  ACTION: Hedge 80% of remaining 1u → Place 0.8u on Sabalenka @ 1.45 (Tier B)
  
  If Pegula wins: (1u × 2.10) - 1u - 0.8u = +0.3u − 1u(already lost) = −0.7u
  If Sabalenka wins: (0.8 × 1.45) - 1u - 0.8u = 1.16 - 1.8 = −0.64u

RESULT: Capped loss at −0.7u instead of −3u. Damage controlled. ✅
(Without hedging: lost 2u + 1u = −3u. With management: −0.7u)

Example C: Break Point Scalp → Quick Profit

IN-PLAY: Djokovic serving at 2-3, 30-40 in 2nd set

Signal: 🔴 BREAK POINT! Conv: 38% · srv 1st%: 58% · DFs: 3
Side: Opponent (returner) — back opponent for set
Markov break opp: 38%

ACTION: Scalp 1u on opponent's set at current odds (e.g. set @ 2.20)

OUTCOME A — Break happens:
  Opponent leads 4-2 with break. Set odds crash to @ 1.25.
  ACTION: Close scalp. Hedge 1u back the other way:
    Hedge: (1 × 2.20) / 1.25 = 1.76u → guaranteed profit
    Or simply cash out the position.
  PROFIT: ~+0.8u

OUTCOME B — Djokovic holds (deuce → AD-in → hold):
  Signal: Server stabilized · hold 88%
  ACTION: Exit scalp at small loss.
  LOSS: ~-0.3u (game-level scalps are sized small for this reason)

Example D: Full Tiebreak Hedge Sequence

SET 2 — You have 3u on Player A. Set at 5-6 → Tiebreak.

TIEBREAK STARTS (0-0):
  Signal: HEDGE 70% — tiebreak coin-flip variance
  ACTION: Place 2u (70% of 3u, rounded) on Player B set @ 2.00 (Tier B)

TB 1-4 — Player B leading:
  Signal: TB ENTRY · Player B has mini-break advantage
  Your hedge is already working.
  ACTION: Hold hedge position.

TB 4-6 — Player B has set point:
  Signal: 🚨 Emergency area
  Your 2u hedge will pay 4u if B takes set.
  ACTION: Hold. Hedge is protecting you.

RESULT — Player B wins TB 7-4:
  Original 3u on A → this set lost, but match continues
  Hedge 2u on B set @ 2.00 → pays 4.0u return
  Net for set: +4.0 - 2.0 - 0 = +2.0u gain on the set (offsets the damage to match position)
  Match position: Still have 3u on A for the decider, but set hedge gave +2u buffer.

12. QUICK REFERENCE CARD

Signal Color → Action

Edge → Stake Quick Lookup (100u bankroll)

Hedge Formula (Memorize This)

Hedge Stake = (Your Stake × Your Odds) / Current Opposite Odds

If both P&L scenarios are positive → ✅ LOCKED GREEN
If one scenario is negative → partial hedge (okay if small)

Game Score → Instant Action

Daily Workflow

1. Open terminal → Scan all matches for EDGE ≥ 2%
2. Rank by edge size → Pick top 1-3 events  
3. Enter pre-match on strongest edges
4. Switch to PointTracker when matches go live
5. Execute signals: GREEN=enter, RED=exit, SHIELD=hedge
6. Goal: Lock green via hedging on every event
7. End session: Log all P&L, check vs stop-losses

APPENDIX: Terminal Signals → Platform Bet Type Mapping

Exchange (Betfair/Smarkets) is ideal — you can LAY (bet against) and get tighter spreads. Fixed-odds (Bet365/Pinnacle) — you can only BACK, so hedging means backing the other side.

*Generated from Tennis Trading Terminal v1.0 intelligence system* *Model: Elo + Surface + Markov Chain | Signals: 19 position signals + stats bonuses* *Kelly: ¼ fractional | Bankroll: 100 units | Goal: Green on every event*