Kelly Calculator
Your stake on every match — instantly.
Set your portfolio once. We size every bet at ¼ Kelly against the model's edge, capped at 6% per event, with the 2% edge floor and three-tier bankroll from the execution manual.
1 unit = $10 (1% of bankroll)
Tier A · Core
$600
60% — main trading bankroll
Tier B · Hedge
$300
30% — hedge reserve
Tier C · Emergency
$100
10% — 🚨 signals only
Max per event
$60
6u hard cap on entry
Max exposure
$150
15u across all events
Today's board — recommended stakes
¼ Kelly · edge ≥ 2%🔒
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The live board sizes every match on today's schedule against the model's edge for your exact portfolio. It is free — it just needs a session. The what-if calculator on the right needs nothing at all.
What-if calculator
Fair odds1.67
Market P50.0%
Edge+10.0%
Full Kelly20.0%
Recommended stake
$50
5.00 units · LARGE · to win $50
How long to reach your target
At ¼ Kelly with a 5% cap — the same rules the terminal enforces.
Stake per event
$25
2.5% of bankroll
True win prob
55.0%
implied + your edge
Growth per event
+0.22%
expected, compounding
Events to $5.0k
736
at this edge
| Bankroll reaches | Events | Stake by then |
|---|---|---|
| $1.5k | 186 | $38 |
| $2.0k | 317 | $50 |
| $3.0k | 503 | $75 |
| $5.0k | 736 | $125 |
This is an expectation, not a schedule. Kelly growth is the average of a wide distribution — at 2.5% per event a run of ten losses costs about 22% of bankroll and is entirely normal inside a winning strategy. The stake shown is a percentage, so it falls with your bankroll as well as rising with it; that is what stops a bad run ending you. It also assumes every bet really carries 5% — if the model is wrong about that, the growth is negative and the same maths runs in reverse.
Edge → stake, for $1,000
| Edge (at 2.00 odds) | ¼ Kelly stake | Units | Classification |
|---|---|---|---|
| +2% | $10 | 1.0u | SMALL |
| +3% | $15 | 1.5u | SMALL |
| +5% | $25 | 2.5u | MEDIUM |
| +8% | $40 | 4.0u | MEDIUM |
| +12% | $60 | 6.0u | MAX |
| +16% | $60 | 6.0u* | MAX |
| +20% | $60 | 6.0u* | MAX |
Reference at even odds — real stakes use each match's actual odds. * = bound by the 6u per-event cap.